GUESS WHICH ONE WAS ELECTED

COULD THEY, OR WOULD THEY?

I decided to show this in black and white because of all the people in this graphic there did not emerge the new pope.  Of all the discussions and guesses and yes, even bets, it would be interesting to know what the odds were that the archbishop of Buenos Aires would be the one elected.  Actually, they were not that bad.  About 30%. 

It is rather attractive to us as human beings to turn everything into a horse race.  It matters not what the purpose of the endeavor is, we are always attracted by the strong desire to forecast the outcome.  Our drive to measure the probability factor of any outcome is more than we can control.  Just plain guessing is not enough.  We have to do the math.  We do it for just about everything. 

We squeeze and pat; kick and shake; slice and dice; turn and flip; push and pull; ask and opine and do just about anything to try to arrive at a sure prediction of the ultimate result.  We all know that it is nothing but “snake-oil” science, but it is better to nurse that rationalization than to admit that it is really nothing but a gamble.  We have to admit, we enjoy the game.  The more mysterious the process, the more fun we get out of projecting the outcome.  That is why the election of the Roman Catholic Pope is so intriguing and so attractive to the prognosticators, insiders and outsiders alike.  In the case of the Vatican event, there don’t seem to be any “insiders.”  Even this time when, after the result was known, it was bandied about that the “winner” had come in second in the previous election.  How true can that be when nary a public “bet” was expressed in his favor before the voting began?  Doesn’t that make you just a little bit skeptical about how much anyone really knew?  If they did know, especially the newspaper people, would they not have floated the prediction?  Would they not have placed their bets with the Irish gambling houses? 

Furthermore, I get this strange question ratling around inside my head:  after it is all over do they still hang around with each other for about a week or more.  They’re out and about, celebrating together, patting one another on the back and calling the winner “Holy Father.”  “Holy Smoke!” is what I say.  Aren’t the losers just a little bit disappointed?  What about the guy who came in second?  Maybe he doesn’t feel quite so bad because after all, the winner did get at least 67% of the vote.  That’s quite a margin.  And it only took five rounds to get it done.  Who knows, maybe it was “rigged.”  I am sure that it wasn’t rigged, but that it was a foregone conclusion before the fifth round.  They knew what they were doing.  That’s perhaps why they can hang around together after.  They decided what to do and how to do it and it became a very solid corporate decision.

When they got together for prayer the next day one reporter quoted the new pope as saying to his electors, “I pray that God will forgive you for what you have done.”

With a sense of humor like that, we might have a sign that we are off to a good start.